But things are about to change. Limited oil reserves are no longer handling the raising demand of energy, new sources and technologies appear and strong economies attempt to secure their own autonomy. Under these conditions, the oil-dollar force will decrease to the point that the world economy will need something else. What? The agri-dollar is the patented therm by “zerohedge” , even if, in this new combination, agriculture plays a maximum role and the dollar – a negligeable one.
The next most steep imbalance in the global market is between supply and demand of food. There is a primary imbalance, due to population growth, boosted by another phenomenon, however, more difficult to measure but certainly more powerful: the increase of living standards leads to an exponential increase in consumption. In recent decades, billions of people that were happy with a bowl of rice a day are now discovering meat.
In developed countries, the consumption of calories is 30% higher than in the poor ones. But as value, consumption is eight times higher. Coupled with population growth, this development is able to leave behind technological developments and to take agricultural potential to the full, even the one of a very large country.
The most vulnerable are China and India, which together have 40% of the world’s population and only 10% of arable land. As if that would not be enough, in the future, the enormous water reserve from the Tibetan Plateau is not enough for both, and China already has plans to stop the flow of rivers to the neighbors. The two countries should either resolve the issue between themselves or to peek after Russian neighbors living space. But equation is terribly complicated by the fact that all three countries are nuclear powers. Again, China seems the most prepared, cynically speaking: she has "plant factories" in work, and ghost towns able to accommodate, in need, tens of millions of people.
The United States are still quite good – with an efficient agriculture, exporting enough to feed a large part of the world. However, productivity is already full and it is difficult to improve. Canada could position a little better, if it would confirm the global warming story, that would make vast areas of land viable for agriculture.
But the greatest potential is in the Southern Hemisphere. Not the one strictly geographical, cut by the equator, but more particular the continents of South America, Africa and Australia. The three continents have 40% of the Earth's inhabited area, but only 25% of the population, and a largely agricultural potential untapped.
South America has already begun to exploit this potential. Brazil, which has 6% of the world’s population and 20% of arable land, has managed to increase its agricultural exports six times in the last decade, relying mainly on meat, soy, wheat and sunflower. Argentina is trying to keep up, and the other countries are just beginning to understand what is happening.
Australia has the lowest density, meaning the best balance between population and arable land, which capitalizes fully. However, unlike Canada, Austria can improve their productivity only if global warming will not materialize. Also, the small population and relatively isolated position means vulnerability to India and China.
Africa, in theory, has the greatest potential: here is 60% of the world's unused arable land. It also has adequate water resources (with the important exception of the Sahara) and an enviable demographic structure. But here are gathered and several disadvantages. The infrastructure is poor, there is little education and the institutions do not work. However, this handicap can be improved quickly, within a single generation, when technology and communications will easily penetrate even the most remote village.
Still, China has moved the most quickly, trying to secure, at first, underground reserves in Africa. But the next race will be after the ground. This will benefit those who buy enormous areas at extremely low prices, the ones who they can defend, if necessary, with the gun.
Where is Romania's place in this equation? Although the free estates, plantations and haciendas seem an attractive model, viewed globally, they become funny. Romania may even feed 80 million people, but this is not enough to ensure the welfare of their citizens at a Western level.
—– riscograma.ro —
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