As usual, the slides are available as a PDF, but I want to draw your attention to a few things. First, slide 17 shows that power production is basically flat throughout the OECD, but it nearly tripled in China from 2003-2012 and nearly doubled in India (albeit from a much lower level – Chinese power production is currently nearly 5 times as great as India's). The only other major increase was in the Rest of the World, which saw power production to grow by more than 20 percent.
More importantly for this website, you have probably heard of a renaissance of nuclear power; I have certainly been hearing about it since Chernobyl. But slide 20 reveals that power production from nuclear plants is also basically flat over the past decade, with a slight dip in 2012 after Japan shut down more than 50 nuclear plants and Germany followed suit with eight of its own.
But overall power production has been growing, so the share of nuclear in total supply (see slide 22) has actually slipped by 4.7 percentage points from 15.7 percent in 2003 to 11 percent in 2012. Note that this decrease is discernible all the way back to 2004; it is not a sudden dip as a result of Fukushima in 2012.
Non-hydro renewables have not quite managed to fill that gap, rising only by 3.0 percentage points over the past decade, but there has been an uptick in recent years. Globally, the PV market is set to continue growing worldwide (and no longer be dependent upon such limited markets as Germany); the big boys (the US and China) are just getting started. Likewise, wind power is an established market worldwide and will continue growing.
By 2035, most nuclear plants in the Western world are scheduled to be decommissioned anyway; we face a massive nuclear phaseout worldwide – one that does not need to be planned further. It is highly unlikely that new plants will be able to replace all of those that need to be decommissioned. France is currently constructing a single nuclear plant; it has 54, most of which could be off-line by the mid-2030s.
Nuclear power production is therefore likely to decrease in absolute terms, while its share of power supply will diminish even more precipitously. Renewables will continue to creep up from the current low level. (Craig Morris)
source: http://www.renewablesinternational.net
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