As the US shale boom continues and OPEC members rein in production, it is likely that US total liquids production will surpass that of Saudi Arabia and Russia very soon. Natural gas supply is growing rapidly as it is increasingly used for generating power as well as in homes and industrial plants. Traditionally, gas consumption was limited to areas pipelines could reach, but it has become technically feasible and increasingly worthwhile to transport LNG over long distances from suppliers to consumers by ship. This connects hitherto segmented markets, but there is still no global market or global price for gas. Coal consumption increased by only 7% over the 1990s, but then leapt by almost 50% in the 2000-2010 decade. BP expects it to grow a further 25% in the current decade and then growth should slow, with a rise of around 5% in the decade to 2030 as China completes its transition to being a modern industrial economy and the service sector catches up with industry.”
The volume of energy produced by non-fossil fuels such as nuclear, hydroelectricity, biofuels, wind – is expected to almost double by 2030. However, they start from a low base – around 13% of all energy – and will still account for less than 20% of the total by 2030, unless much stronger than expected policy support is put in place or disruptive technologies are developed.
Christof Rühl says:
- “Nuclear power is expected to grow strongly in China, India and Russia where there are ambitious expansion programmes. Renewable energy production is currently growing most in Europe and North America but a huge jump is expected in Asia in the next decade where China is already the world’s largest user of wind energy and largest producer of solar panels. Renewable energy is growing fast but in large part still due to government subsidies and regulations – and the problem is there is only so far these can go when government budgets are stretched. The efficiency of renewable energy still needs to improve to make high growth sustainable.”
Shale oil – and ‘tight’ oil – and gas are found in shale rock formations and new drilling techniques such as hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling have revolutionised production. BP’s chief executive Bob Dudley has described the growth in production as the biggest development in the industry in the past two decades.
Christof Rühl says:
- “In the US, shale gas production is expected to grow 4.5% per annum to 2030, making the country self-sufficient in gas and a net exporter. In the US we have seen a combination of ‘above ground’ factors come together, such as no barriers to entry, a supportive policy framework and widespread private ownership of mineral rights which have, over time, created a very competitive industry with lots of expert service companies, the world’s largest fleet of onshore rigs – around 1,800 – plus billions of tonnes of resources below the ground. Shale gas production is not expected to grow as fast in Europe and Asia because they do not currently have the same combination of ‘above ground’ factors as the US. China is staging a major programme to increase shale production. However, because of the fast growth of demand in Asia, and the decline in domestic production in Europe, both regions are expected to need growing net imports of gas.”
Energy intensity and carbon – wealth, energy and the environment
Over the past 40 years, the world’s economy has grown by a factor of 3.6, while its energy use has only grown by a factor of 2.4. However, carbon dioxide emissions have almost kept pace with energy use – also rising to almost 2.2 times their 1970 level.
Christof Rühl says:
- “Over time, we are seeing a continuing fall in the energy intensity of the global economy – the amount of energy we use to create each unit of GDP. This is because people and businesses are learning ways to save energy – driving more miles to the gallon or recycling energy in industrial processes, for example. This saves money and also helps limit carbon emissions – although they still grow in total because aggregate energy use is increasing. As well as energy-saving, the other way to limit carbon emissions is energy-switching – which shows up in the data through the metric of ‘carbon intensity’ – the amount of carbon emitted for each unit of energy. Carbon intensity gives a very different picture from energy intensity – it has hardly fallen at all in 40 years. However, the same market forces that drive energy efficiency and, therefore, decoupled the growth in energy consumption from the growth in wealth could potentially decouple the growth in carbon from the growth in energy use. So, this is why BP and others argue for a widely applied price on carbon. This not only encourages people to save energy but to make the energy that we do use less carbon intensive.”
source: http://www.bp.com
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